Each year, as many of you who follow this blog might know, I make my Oscar predictions.

I’m normally pretty good, with a strike rate usually in the mid 90% range.

This year it’s going to be difficult, because whilst The Power of the Dog seemed to have early momentum and be the front runner, CODA has recently taken the baton and now looks like the film to beat for Best Picture. But there’s also Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast to be considered, and Denis Villeneuve’s spectacular space epic, Dune. Not to mention Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story.

It will be interesting to see whether Jane Campion’s faux pas involving the Williams sisters has an impact. (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, just go onto Twitter and search #janecampion) Given that this occurred just before final voting for the Academy members commenced, and given the Academy’s strong stance on diversity etc, I suspect that it might have taken the shine off her film in certain circles. How much, is to be seen.

I haven’t seen all the movies this year. Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza is the one film I’m dying to see. PTA is a director who, for me, has never made a bad movie, and in my eyes has made two masterpieces – Magnolia and There will be Blood.

Adam McKay’s subversive Don’t Look Up was an outrageous piece of work, and highly entertaining whilst also being a none-too-subtle call to action. The film was worth watching just to see Meryl Streep strut her stuff with utter joyous bravado.

Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, featuring Olivia Coleman and Ed Harris, is a very human look at the cost of motherhood. It’s a beautifully made film with exquisite performances – but probably won’t make the cut as Best Picture.

For me, The Power of the Dog is a film I admire but I wouldn’t go out of my way to watch it a second time. It has some standout performances, and for me the highlight was Jonny Greenwood’s amazing score. Bing a longtime Radiohead fan, I really hope he gets the Oscar for it, although Hans Zimmer probably will for Dune.

Dune will probably take out the major craft awards.

Being the Ricardos was a tour de force for Nicole Kidman and also Javier Bardem – and I really hope Nicole gets the gong. Although the momentum seems to be going for Jessica Chastain, for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

The best film of the year for me though was undoubtedly Drive My Car – a 3hr Japanese film based on a Murakami short story. It’s slow and it centres around the staging of a Chekhov play, so you can’t really say that it’s an immediately accessible film, but if you sit back and let it wrap itself around you, you will be amply rewarded.

Okay, so here are my predictions. As I say, this year is wide open with so many outstanding movies and performances – but here goes:

Oh, and as with last year, I’m making my prediction of who I think will win but adding my personal preference as to who I think should win!

Best Picture
Coda
BB: Drive My Car

Best Director
Jane Campion / The Power of the Dog
BB: Denis Villeneuve / Dune

Best Actor
Will Smith / King Richard
BB: Benedict Cumberbatch / The Power of the Dog

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman / Being the Ricardos
BB: Nicole Kidman / Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur / CODA
BB: Troy Kotsur / CODA

Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose / West Side Story
BB: Kirsten Dunst / The Power of the Dog

Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh / Belfast
BB: Adam McKay / Don’t Look Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion / The Power of the Dog
BB: Ryusuke Hamaguchi / Drive My Car

Best International Film
Drive My Car
BB: Drive My Car

Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser / Dune
BB: Greig Fraser / Dune

Best Film Editing
Dune
BB: Dune

Best Sound Mixing:
Dune
BB: The Power of the Dog

Best Production Design
Dune
BB: Dune

Visual Effects
Dune
BB: Dune

Original Score
Dune / Hans Zimmer
BB: Power of the Dog / Jonny Greenwood

Original Song
No Time to Die / No Time to Die
BB: No Time to Die / No Time to Die

Best Costume Design
Dune
BB: Dune

Best Makeup & Hair
Dune
BB: Dune

Best Documentary
Summer of Soul
BB: The Rescue I (Not nominated)

Best Animated Feature
Encanto
BB: Encanto

So on Sunday night US time, Monday Australian time, we’ll know the results. We’ll find out whether Netflix has finally got a Best Picture film in its library (The Power of the Dog), or whether Apple TV+ has done it with CODA. Or maybe some other film…

Whatever the result, I finish off by saying that it’s an absolute insult to the industry and to the brilliant crafts-people working in film that the Academy has chosen not to screen the award presentations to the categories such as music composition, editing, sound, production design, wardrobe etc… These aren’t deemed “sexy” enough to make prime time hey? Well try making a film without an editor, without a sound designer, without a production designer.

It’s shameful….