Each year, as many of you who follow this blog might know, I make my Oscar predictions. I’m normally pretty good, with a strike rate usually in the mid 90% range.

Last year I didn’t post my predictions because I was on that crazy four month long promotional tour of The Way, My Way, doing Q&A screenings throughout the US and Canada, Germany and Malta.

I’m late posting this year because I’ve been playing catchup on viewing the movies – and now that I’ve seen most of the nominated films I have to say I’m largely disappointed with this year’s crop.

All the heat is on One Battle After Another and Sinners, two films that underwhelmed me.

I walked out of the 70mm screening of One Battle after 40 minutes, then watched it all the way through sometime later and was more forgiving on my second viewing. Even so, the film doesn’t top There will be Blood, or even Magnolia.

Director Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for Oscars 14 times, with four Best Picture nominations. He’s a great filmmaker and One Battle will probably bag him 3 Oscars – Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. And most probably Sean Penn will win his third Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his lock-jaw chomping performance.

Even so, the film didn’t move me emotionally. It challenged me intellectually, but it didn’t move me. And that’s how I judge the value of a movie – that, and what the film is saying. I couldn’t figure out what PTA was trying to say in One Battle. He seemed to be pulling his punches.

Sinners is an audacious film, there’s no doubt, and I can see what all the fuss is about, but for me it’s merely a racially based metaphorical version of From Dusk til Dawn, written by Quentin Tarantino. Again, it didn’t move me. It’s not a film I will remember in ten years time.

My Best Film of the Year?

Bugonia.

Written and directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, who made the outstanding films The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, (I wasn’t a big fan of Poor Things), Bugonia is a searing exploration of echo chambers, delusional thinking and how conspiracy theories can spiral into violence. I watched that movie and it definitely gut-punched me emotionally.

Of the other nine films on the Best Films list, the only other one that impacted me was Hamnet – a superb piece of work from Nomadland Director Chloe Xhao. Jessie Buckley deserves the Best Actress Oscar, although I think Emma Stone in Bugonia is equally deserving.

I should also mention The Secret Agent, which was a compelling piece of work. Exquisitely executed, stunningly cast with a brilliantly subtle performance by Wagner Moura, the film worked for me emotionally and thematically.

Sentimental Value? Stellan Skarsgard was a knockout, but I found the film to be Bergman-esque and hence tedious. Who cares? Maybe I just have an inherent distaste for movies about aging film directors and their failed ambitions and personal issues. I thought the George Clooney movie Jay Kelly was a much better exploration of similar territory.

I stumbled across the documentary The Perfect Neighbor while scrolling through Netflix months ago, and was blown away by the audacity of the filmmaking (how can you make an entire movie out of police body-cam footage?) but more importantly, what the film was saying about the US “Stand Your Ground” laws and the biases inbuilt into the justice system. I had no idea at the time that it would be nominated for an Oscar – but I sure hope it wins!

In terms of clean line storytelling, I have to give a respectful nod to Weapons, which showcases the extraordinary talents of Amy Madigan, whom I hope wins the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. The film also includes Julia Garner, who is always stunning in whatever she chooses to do. I’m not a fan of horror movies, but this one was enthralling.

Back to my Oscar predictions. I’ve put in bold those movies that I think will win, and put in brackets underneath those movies that I believe should win.
Okay, so here is my list:

Best Picture
One Battle after Another
(Bugonia)

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson / One Battle after Another
(same)

Best Actor
Michael B Jordan / Sinners
(Wagner Moura / The Secret Agent)

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley / Hamnet
(same)

Best Supporting Actor
Sean Penn / One Battle After Another
(same)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan / Weapons
(same)

Best Original Screenplay
Sinners
(same)

Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
(Bugonia)

Best Casting
Sinners
(The Secret Agent)

Best International Film
The Secret Agent
(Same)

Best Cinematography
One Battle After Another
(Same)

Best Film Editing
Sinners
(F1)

Best Sound:
Fi
(Same)

Best Production Design
Frankenstein
(Same)

Visual Effects
Avatar Fire & Ash
(Same)

Original Score
Sinners
(One Battle after Another) What does Jonny Greenwood have to do to win an Oscar??

Original Song
Kpop Demon Hunters
(Same)

Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
(Hamnet)

Best Makeup & Hair
Frankenstein
(Same)

Best Documentary
The Perfect Neighbor
(Same)

Best Animated Feature
K-Pop Demon Hunters
(Same)

So Sunday night US time, Monday late morning Australian time, we’ll know the results. We’ll find out whether the film that underwhelmed me the most gets the major gongs, or whether some of these very brave and outrageous films snag a few.

Go Bugonia is what I say!

(Emma Stone in Bugonia below)